MID-WEEK MUSINGS: IS AMBROSE A CHASER?

CAN MARCOS AMBROSE JUMP INTO THE CHASE?

We’re almost one-fifth of the way through the 2011 Sprint Cup series schedule and there have been plenty of good stories thus far. It all started when Trevor Bayne won the Daytona 500,
something that very few fans ever thought would have happened. In the weeks after that incredible win, the main
stories that have been making headlines are the fast start that Paul Menard got off to with Richard Childress racing
as well as the resurgence of Dale Earnhardt, Jr. But there is one driver that I think most people have written off; a driver that switched teams in the offseason—like Menard—and one that could make the Chase this year. I’m talking about Marcos Ambrose, the driver who pilots the #9 Ford for Richard Petty Motorsports.

Ambrose is off to the best start in his career over the first seven races with two top tens recorded thus far, even though his average finish was better in 2009 through the first seven races. He has also suddenly emerged as a threat on the 1.5-mile ovals after posting top six finishes at both Las Vegas and Texas. The Sprint Cup series schedule is filled with the intermediate tracks, so Ambrose could very well continue his success throughout this season. Butthat’s not the reason I think he will make the Chase this year.

Currently, Marcos sits 19th in points, ahead of drivers such as Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex, Jr., Jamie McMurray, Jeff Burton, and Joey Logano. He has one top five finish (the 4th-place at Las Vegas) and two top tens total, which is the same amount as Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Mark Martin, and Greg Biffle have in 2011. Chances are, Ambrose won’t make the Chase by finishing in the top ten in points after Richmond, but the new rule this year could very easily put Marcos into the Chase for the Championship.

The new rule I was referring to—in case you forgot—is that “win wildcard” rule for the Chase. After the 26th race, the top ten drivers in the point standings get into the Chase. Two more drivers will complete the field of twelve in the Chase, and those with the most wins (and in the top 20) will be those two “wildcard” drivers. If this rule was implemented last season, Jamie McMurray would have been in the Chase because of his two wins, and in 2009 it would have been Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth with four and two wins, respectively.

Two wins seems to be the magic number. In 2008, Kasey Kahne would have made the Chase with two wins if that rule was implemented.The announcers at FOX have noted many times this year that Kevin Harvick will almost certainly make the Chase because of his two wins thus far. Well, let me name two tracks: Sonoma and Watkins Glen.

Marcos Ambrose is one of the best at the road course races, and the Sprint Cup series runs two races per year at them. His average finish at Watkins Glen is 2.7 and Marcos has finishes of 6th and 3rd at Sonoma. He hasn’t won at either of them yet, but if Ambrose can finally seal the deal at both road course races this year, I think you will be looking at one of the twelve Chasers for 2011—as long as he stays in the top twenty in points.

Tags: 2011, ambrose, chase, contender, marcos

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Comment by Duhhub on August 15, 2011 at 1:16pm: Great job, Marcos!!!

Comment by Roger Duncan on August 15, 2011 at 1:12pm: It will be a tough slog from here for Marcos, but it looks to me like the team is finally getting their ducks in a row.

Comment by Dave Norris™ on August 15, 2011 at 1:06pm: yeah Jordan, but Tony really screwed himself today, too. That was huge for Ambrose to have a shot and Kes to hit the top 10 (Denny crashing too). And Kes on the rocket ship up the points, if he makes the top 10, this could get VERY interesting!

Comment by Jordan McAbee on August 15, 2011 at 1:05pm: I think Marcos has a better chance to win at Bristol or Richmond... gonna be a tough road for him to get into the Chase. He definitely needs a second win, though.

Comment by Roger Duncan on August 15, 2011 at 12:41pm: Lightning just struck!

Comment by Dave Norris™ on August 15, 2011 at 12:34pm: THERE'S THE WIN! Marcos can drive pretty well on 1.5's too...Atlanta coming up!

Comment by HornFan on July 15, 2011 at 10:50pm: I figured that he'd be in, using a wildcard position having wins at Sonoma and Watkins Glenn, but to do it now he'll have to stay top-20, make no mistakes, and win two or more races.

Comment by Gil veilleux on July 15, 2011 at 2:26pm: Good article !! i agree tha tit will take AT LEAST 2 wins to make the chase this year ... can Ambrose get those 2 wins ?? .. time will tell

Comment by Roger Duncan on June 30, 2011 at 7:56am: Lightning can strike at any time, anywhere. I believe the Tasmanian Devil is about to strike. As has been alluded to, a little luck goes a long way. we shall see.

Comment by Randomness on June 29, 2011 at 8:00pm: Just think about this. In the races at RP tracks that he hasn't been taken out (3), 2 of them have been top 10s. The only one that wasn't was his first 500 (17th or 18th). 10 RP races in a row since then where someone else's crap has stuffed him. He just needs some good luck for a change.

Roger, they've had some good cars, but never winning ones. I'd say all he can do is win at the Glen and hope no one in 11-20 gets more than 1 win. Even then, it goes on the position in points if I'm not mistaken, and I can't see him getting higher than about the 15th position, and more than likely lower than that.

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